Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | LT -188 MTSU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +17 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -3.3 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -2.2 (-19.2) | 140.0 (-21.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -1.0 (-18.0) | 138.1 (-19.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -1.9 (-18.9) | 140.5 (-21.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LT -2.0 (-19.0) | 141.2 (-22.2) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | LT 80 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | LT 59 – 58 MTSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MTSU 88 – 51 LT |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 LT |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LT 85 – 74 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#128) | 3.0 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#166) | 0.75 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#153) | 0.69 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#148) | 0.560 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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