Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -150 MASS +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -1.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -0.6 (+5.4) | 147.3 (-5.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -0.3 (+5.7) | 146.3 (-4.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -1.1 (+4.9) | 146.8 (-4.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.6 (+5.4) | 147.7 (-5.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2024 | JOES 81 – 72 MASS |
| Jan 24, 2024 | JOES 78 – 77 MASS |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MASS 69 – 67 JOES |
| Mar 4, 2021 | MASS 100 – 66 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#211) | 0.4 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#251) | 0.52 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#242) | 0.62 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#228) | 0.534 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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