Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -650 MASS +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -13.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -13.3 (-4.3) | 150.4 (+2.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -11.4 (-2.4) | 151.4 (+1.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -13.5 (-4.5) | 147.9 (+5.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -13.2 (-4.2) | 148.2 (+4.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2024 | JOES 78 – 77 MASS |
| Jan 21, 2023 | JOES 74 – 68 MASS |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MASS 69 – 67 JOES |
| Mar 4, 2021 | MASS 100 – 66 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#96) | -4.4 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#114) | -0.85 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#127) | -0.94 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#110) | 0.462 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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