Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | MASS -160 JOES +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | MASS -3.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -3.7 (-4.7) | 150.6 (+4.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -2.7 (-3.7) | 150.2 (+4.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -3.5 (-4.5) | 148.4 (+6.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -3.3 (-4.3) | 149.6 (+5.4) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2024 | JOES 81 – 72 MASS |
| Jan 21, 2023 | JOES 74 – 68 MASS |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MASS 69 – 67 JOES |
| Mar 4, 2021 | MASS 100 – 66 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-11 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#73) | 7.5 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#106) | 0.74 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#100) | 1.24 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#83) | 0.529 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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