Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
| Money | MASS -150 JOES +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -1.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -1.8 (+0.2) | 151.9 (-15.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -1.3 (+0.7) | 153.3 (-17.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -0.6 (+1.4) | 151.9 (-15.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -1.5 (+0.5) | 153.0 (-17.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2024 | JOES 81 – 72 MASS |
| Jan 24, 2024 | JOES 78 – 77 MASS |
| Jan 21, 2023 | JOES 74 – 68 MASS |
| Mar 4, 2021 | MASS 100 – 66 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#184) | 1.0 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#185) | 0.00 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#186) | 0.13 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#183) | 0.496 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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