Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MASS -200 JOES +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +34 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -6.3 (+27.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -4.7 (+29.3) | 155.2 (+10.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -4.1 (+29.9) | 153.7 (+12.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -4.3 (+29.7) | 152.6 (+13.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -5.5 (+28.5) | 155.0 (+11.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2024 | JOES 81 – 72 MASS |
| Jan 24, 2024 | JOES 78 – 77 MASS |
| Jan 21, 2023 | JOES 74 – 68 MASS |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MASS 69 – 67 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-7 | 5-15 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 3-9 |
| Home | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Away | 3-3 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 82.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#116) | -2.6 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#139) | -0.25 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#113) | -0.09 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#131) | 0.486 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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