Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | USF +155 UCF -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +13 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -5.7 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -6.1 (+19.1) | 137.1 (+19.9) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -6.2 (+19.2) | 142.0 (+15.0) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -5.4 (+18.4) | 143.1 (+13.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -5.0 (+18.0) | 139.1 (+17.9) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | USF 83 – 77 UCF |
| Feb 23, 2023 | USF 82 – 75 UCF |
| Mar 11, 2022 | UCF 60 – 58 USF |
| Feb 4, 2022 | UCF 68 – 49 USF |
| Jan 16, 2022 | USF 75 – 51 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-9 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#156) | 10.2 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#252) | 1.72 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#210) | 2.37 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#217) | 0.596 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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