UCF
Knights
60
–
58
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Air Force Reserve American Athletic Conference
South Florida
Bulls
Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -9.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -8.3 (-6.3) | 128.5 (-10.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -8.4 (-6.4) | 128.7 (-10.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -7.7 (-5.7) | 128.8 (-10.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -7.8 (-5.8) | 129.1 (-11.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | USF 83 – 77 UCF |
| Feb 23, 2023 | USF 82 – 75 UCF |
| Jan 21, 2023 | USF 85 – 72 UCF |
| Feb 4, 2022 | UCF 68 – 49 USF |
| Jan 16, 2022 | USF 75 – 51 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#101) | -4.1 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#95) | -0.88 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#86) | -0.98 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#111) | 0.446 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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