And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
UCF Knights
60 58
FINAL Neutral Conference Air Force Reserve American Athletic Conference
South Florida Bulls
American Conference · Dickies Arena (Neutral) · March 11, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UCF -9.0 Away covered
O/U 126.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCF win
Actual UCF +2 118 Won
Massey UCF -9.4 (-7.4)
Massey Totals 123.0 (-5.0)
Bradley-Terry 87%
Weighted B-T 92%
Efficiency Plus ML UCF -8.3 (-6.3) 128.5 (-10.5) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML UCF -8.4 (-6.4) 128.7 (-10.7) 81%
Baseline ML UCF -7.7 (-5.7) 128.8 (-10.8) 80%
Baseline Plus ML UCF -7.8 (-5.8) 129.1 (-11.1) 81%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 20, 2024 USF 8377 UCF
Feb 23, 2023 USF 8275 UCF
Jan 21, 2023 USF 8572 UCF
Feb 4, 2022 UCF 6849 USF
Jan 16, 2022 USF 7551 UCF

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCF USF
Overall 18-12 8-23
Conference 9-9 3-15
Home 13-3 6-10
Away 4-8 2-9
Neutral 1-1 0-4
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 69.8 57.5
Avg Pts Against 68.2 64.9
Massey 5.3 (#101) -4.1 (#240)
Bradley-Terry 1.06 (#95) -0.88 (#252)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.47 (#86) -0.98 (#246)
RPI 0.533 (#111) 0.446 (#278)
Shooting & Four Factors UCF USF
FG% 42.7% 37.5%
3PT% 34.8% 25.0%
REB / G 35.6 35.5
OREB / G 11.2 11.2
AST / TO 1.09 0.86
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.1% 41.4%
TOV% 19.4% 19.1%
ORB% 31.6% 29.6%
FT Rate 20.4% 17.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.9% 48.4%
Opp TOV% 20.7% 19.1%
DRB% 70.2% 72.6%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 24.3%

Game Analysis

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