Bitch, I'm me! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
UCF Knights
60 – 58
FINAL Neutral Conference Air Force Reserve American Athletic Conference
South Florida Bulls
American Conference · Dickies Arena (Neutral) · March 11, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UCF -9.0 Away covered
O/U 126.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCF win
Actual UCF +2 118 Won
Massey UCF -9.4 (-7.4) — —
Massey Totals — 123.0 (-5.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 87% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 92% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UCF -8.3 (-6.3) 128.5 (-10.5) 81% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UCF -8.4 (-6.4) 128.7 (-10.7) 81% ✓
Baseline ML UCF -7.7 (-5.7) 128.8 (-10.8) 80% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UCF -7.8 (-5.8) 129.1 (-11.1) 81% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 20, 2024 USF 83 – 77 UCF
Feb 23, 2023 USF 82 – 75 UCF
Jan 21, 2023 USF 85 – 72 UCF
Feb 4, 2022 UCF 68 – 49 USF
Jan 16, 2022 USF 75 – 51 UCF

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCF USF
Overall 18-12 8-23
Conference 9-9 3-15
Home 13-3 6-10
Away 4-8 2-9
Neutral 1-1 0-4
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 69.8 57.5
Avg Pts Against 68.2 64.9
Massey 5.3 (#101) -4.1 (#240)
Bradley-Terry 1.06 (#95) -0.88 (#252)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.47 (#86) -0.98 (#246)
RPI 0.533 (#111) 0.446 (#278)
Shooting & Four Factors UCF USF
FG% 42.7% 37.5%
3PT% 34.8% 25.0%
REB / G 35.6 35.5
OREB / G 11.2 11.2
AST / TO 1.09 0.86
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.1% 41.4%
TOV% 19.4% 19.1%
ORB% 31.6% 29.6%
FT Rate 20.4% 17.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.9% 48.4%
Opp TOV% 20.7% 19.1%
DRB% 70.2% 72.6%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 24.3%

Game Analysis

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