Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -250 USF +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +6 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -7.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -7.2 (-13.2) | 141.5 (+18.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -5.7 (-11.7) | 140.9 (+19.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -5.5 (-11.5) | 143.6 (+16.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -5.8 (-11.8) | 142.8 (+17.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2023 | USF 82 – 75 UCF |
| Jan 21, 2023 | USF 85 – 72 UCF |
| Mar 11, 2022 | UCF 60 – 58 USF |
| Feb 4, 2022 | UCF 68 – 49 USF |
| Jan 16, 2022 | USF 75 – 51 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-8 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#51) | 6.4 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#88) | 1.56 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#86) | 1.65 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#111) | 0.581 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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