Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -500 USF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +7 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -11.8 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -11.4 (-18.4) | 143.3 (+13.7) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -11.5 (-18.5) | 144.2 (+12.8) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -12.1 (-19.1) | 146.3 (+10.7) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -11.8 (-18.8) | 144.1 (+12.9) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | USF 83 – 77 UCF |
| Jan 21, 2023 | USF 85 – 72 UCF |
| Mar 11, 2022 | UCF 60 – 58 USF |
| Feb 4, 2022 | UCF 68 – 49 USF |
| Jan 16, 2022 | USF 75 – 51 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#55) | 0.9 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#88) | -0.52 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#80) | -0.18 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#105) | 0.470 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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