Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +24 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -8.1 (+32.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -7.1 (+31.1) | 128.2 (-2.2) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -7.9 (+31.9) | 132.8 (-6.8) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -7.4 (+31.4) | 132.5 (-6.5) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -6.9 (+30.9) | 130.2 (-4.2) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | USF 83 – 77 UCF |
| Feb 23, 2023 | USF 82 – 75 UCF |
| Jan 21, 2023 | USF 85 – 72 UCF |
| Mar 11, 2022 | UCF 60 – 58 USF |
| Feb 4, 2022 | UCF 68 – 49 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-10 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#243) | 8.1 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#273) | 1.68 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#269) | 2.40 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#274) | 0.564 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 23.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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