Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -700 USF +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +19 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -12.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -10.9 (+8.1) | 129.1 (-12.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -10.2 (+8.8) | 133.2 (-16.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -10.3 (+8.7) | 132.3 (-15.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -10.4 (+8.6) | 130.7 (-13.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | USF 83 – 77 UCF |
| Feb 23, 2023 | USF 82 – 75 UCF |
| Jan 21, 2023 | USF 85 – 72 UCF |
| Mar 11, 2022 | UCF 60 – 58 USF |
| Jan 16, 2022 | USF 75 – 51 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#90) | -3.1 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#85) | -0.74 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#82) | -0.63 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#89) | 0.456 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 24.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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