I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
Missouri Valley Conference · Ford Center · January 21, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread DRKE -14.5 Away covered
O/U 137.5 Over
Money EVAN +750 / DRKE -1000
Model Predictions
Spread Total EVAN win
Actual DRKE +36 158 Lost
Massey DRKE -11.9 (-24.1) — —
Massey Totals — 135.4 (+22.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 11% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 6% ✓
Baseline Plus ML DRKE -12.9 (-23.1) 140.2 (+17.8) 14% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ DRKE -13.7 (-22.3) 138.3 (+19.7) 14% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML DRKE -12.3 (-23.7) 138.0 (+20.0) 14% ✓
Baseline ML DRKE -12.3 (-23.7) 138.9 (+19.1) 14% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 29, 2026 DRKE 82 – 78 EVAN
Dec 21, 2025 DRKE 66 – 65 EVAN
Feb 27, 2025 DRKE 65 – 61 EVAN
Jan 11, 2025 DRKE 63 – 40 EVAN
Mar 9, 2024 DRKE 79 – 58 EVAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings EVAN DRKE
Overall 5-27 27-8
Conference 1-19 15-5
Home 3-10 14-1
Away 1-14 6-6
Neutral 1-3 7-1
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak L6 L1
Avg Pts For 62.4 73.3
Avg Pts Against 76.0 64.4
Massey -11.5 (#345) 4.1 (#109)
Bradley-Terry -1.83 (#329) 0.90 (#100)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.35 (#329) 1.20 (#97)
RPI 0.405 (#332) 0.554 (#86)
Shooting & Four Factors EVAN DRKE
FG% 39.7% 44.3%
3PT% 32.1% 33.7%
REB / G 32.5 34.8
OREB / G 8.2 8.2
AST / TO 0.78 1.03
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.0% 50.7%
TOV% 18.5% 17.2%
ORB% 22.1% 24.6%
FT Rate 20.3% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.1% 47.5%
Opp TOV% 18.5% 18.9%
DRB% 75.0% 76.9%
Opp FT Rate 24.4% 20.2%

Game Analysis

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