Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | STBK +260 UNCW -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +11 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -6.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -5.9 (-5.1) | 127.0 (-14.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -5.9 (-5.1) | 128.5 (-15.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -5.6 (-5.4) | 128.6 (-15.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -6.7 (-4.3) | 128.2 (-15.2) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCW 75 – 71 STBK |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNCW 80 – 70 STBK |
| Jan 27, 2024 | STBK 86 – 78 UNCW |
| Feb 24, 2023 | UNCW 76 – 69 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#326) | 0.6 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#295) | 1.19 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#303) | 1.37 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#298) | 0.543 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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