Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | STBK +145 UNCW -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -4.2 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -4.4 (+12.4) | 140.2 (+23.8) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -3.0 (+11.0) | 141.6 (+22.4) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.4 (+11.4) | 142.2 (+21.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -3.5 (+11.5) | 142.5 (+21.5) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCW 75 – 71 STBK |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNCW 80 – 70 STBK |
| Feb 24, 2023 | UNCW 76 – 69 STBK |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UNCW 62 – 51 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#225) | 4.6 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#194) | 1.40 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#166) | 1.49 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#201) | 0.584 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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