Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -3000 STBK +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +10 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -18.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -14.6 (-4.6) | 140.9 (+9.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -16.3 (-6.3) | 141.9 (+8.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -16.1 (-6.1) | 143.4 (+6.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -15.5 (-5.5) | 141.5 (+8.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCW 75 – 71 STBK |
| Jan 27, 2024 | STBK 86 – 78 UNCW |
| Feb 24, 2023 | UNCW 76 – 69 STBK |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UNCW 62 – 51 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 9-4 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#116) | -11.8 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#106) | -2.05 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#116) | -2.68 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#88) | 0.418 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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