Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE +130 UVA -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -2.3 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -0.6 (-8.4) | 137.9 (+5.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -1.3 (-7.7) | 134.1 (+8.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.8 (-8.2) | 138.5 (+4.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.6 (-8.4) | 139.0 (+4.0) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVA 75 – 70 WAKE |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UVA 83 – 75 WAKE |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UVA 49 – 47 WAKE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | WAKE 66 – 47 UVA |
| Jan 15, 2022 | WAKE 63 – 55 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 60.5 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#82) | 12.6 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#38) | 2.82 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#40) | 3.68 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#42) | 0.627 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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