Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE -250 UVA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +19 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -7.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -5.2 (+13.8) | 132.5 (-19.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -6.2 (+12.8) | 132.1 (-19.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -6.0 (+13.0) | 134.0 (-21.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -6.4 (+12.6) | 133.1 (-20.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVA 75 – 70 WAKE |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UVA 83 – 75 WAKE |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UVA 49 – 47 WAKE |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UVA 76 – 67 WAKE |
| Jan 15, 2022 | WAKE 63 – 55 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 17-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 59.8 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#46) | 7.7 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#60) | 1.69 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#47) | 1.91 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#42) | 0.574 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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