Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -1650 WAKE +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -11.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -12.9 (-7.9) | 153.8 (-8.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -11.4 (-6.4) | 152.6 (-7.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -11.9 (-6.9) | 150.5 (-5.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -11.8 (-6.8) | 152.1 (-7.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | UVA 83 – 75 WAKE |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UVA 49 – 47 WAKE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | WAKE 66 – 47 UVA |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UVA 76 – 67 WAKE |
| Jan 15, 2022 | WAKE 63 – 55 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#21) | 9.5 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#13) | 1.29 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.33 (#12) | 1.67 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#15) | 0.540 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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