Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -290 UVA +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -7.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -5.8 (-13.8) | 133.0 (+25.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -6.8 (-14.8) | 133.0 (+25.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -6.0 (-14.0) | 132.0 (+26.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -6.1 (-14.1) | 131.3 (+26.7) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVA 75 – 70 WAKE |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UVA 49 – 47 WAKE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | WAKE 66 – 47 UVA |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UVA 76 – 67 WAKE |
| Jan 15, 2022 | WAKE 63 – 55 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#76) | 4.0 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#39) | 0.73 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#46) | 1.08 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#45) | 0.526 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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