Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +8 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -0.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -1.1 (-9.1) | 125.1 (-7.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -2.3 (-10.3) | 126.4 (-8.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.7 (-8.7) | 130.1 (-12.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.5 (-8.5) | 131.7 (-13.7) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVA 75 – 70 WAKE |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UVA 83 – 75 WAKE |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UVA 49 – 47 WAKE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | WAKE 66 – 47 UVA |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UVA 76 – 67 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-7 | 18-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#85) | 9.4 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#83) | 1.79 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#77) | 2.32 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#97) | 0.562 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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