Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LR +130 TNST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +12 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -0.3 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.8 (+12.8) | 149.2 (+16.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -0.3 (+12.3) | 147.5 (+18.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -0.5 (+12.5) | 147.1 (+18.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.4 (+12.4) | 149.2 (+16.8) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | TNST 70 – 63 LR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TNST 84 – 79 LR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TNST 72 – 70 LR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TNST 95 – 86 LR |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LR 85 – 60 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-16 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.9 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#344) | -7.3 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#353) | -1.57 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#351) | -2.16 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.342 (#361) | 0.395 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.