Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -2000 GTWN +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +13 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -20.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -15.2 (-2.2) | 157.9 (+19.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -18.0 (-5.0) | 156.2 (+20.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -15.2 (-2.2) | 156.3 (+20.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -16.8 (-3.8) | 157.0 (+20.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | XAV 91 – 84 GTWN |
| Dec 21, 2025 | XAV 80 – 77 GTWN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | XAV 74 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GTWN 69 – 63 XAV |
| Mar 3, 2024 | XAV 98 – 93 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 2-18 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-12 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#19) | -3.9 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#22) | -0.92 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#11) | -1.03 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#16) | 0.453 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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