I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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85–39 on winners spread MAE 8.6 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena +8.4 134.0 81% 57–72 ✓
Niagara @ Rider +4.2 129.6 66% 62–65 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist +2.2 128.3 59% 61–57 ✗
Iona @ Manhattan -13.5 141.8 14% 84–76 ✓
Canisius @ Fairfield +2.1 133.7 61% 58–67 ✓
Villanova @ St. John's +5.6 150.9 73% 57–49 ✗
VCU @ Richmond +0.4 131.8 51% 74–62 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Francis +4.8 138.7 70% 61–87 ✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University -8.5 142.7 18% 73–66 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner +2.5 129.8 64% 50–72 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairleigh Dickinson +5.0 151.5 71% 92–85 ✗
Toledo @ Buffalo -1.9 165.8 41% 86–77 ✓
Boise State @ New Mexico +2.9 143.1 64% 79–81 ✓
Georgetown @ Xavier +15.2 156.3 90% 82–95 ✓
Miami @ Duke +5.1 146.8 69% 66–68 ✓
Charleston @ Northeastern -7.9 141.8 21% 87–61 ✓
Ole Miss @ Arkansas +9.0 138.1 81% 57–69 ✓
UCF @ South Florida -6.2 142.0 26% 72–85 ✗
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech +0.3 143.4 50% 80–63 ✗
George Mason @ Rhode Island -1.5 138.3 43% 79–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ IU Indianapolis -12.6 149.5 14% 89–77 ✓
Dayton @ George Washington -5.1 137.3 28% 69–76 ✗
TCU @ Kansas +7.4 147.0 78% 83–60 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +7.1 132.5 76% 53–66 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +6.2 142.4 77% 69–80 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Georgia +3.0 140.4 67% 85–82 ✗
Massachusetts @ Saint Joseph's +1.1 146.8 54% 68–74 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +0.6 146.3 51% 60–52 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Stony Brook -5.9 128.5 24% 62–51 ✓
Navy @ Army +2.9 143.9 66% 77–71 ✗
UCLA @ Arizona -0.7 148.8 48% 52–58 ✗
Virginia @ Wake Forest -0.8 138.5 48% 76–67 ✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State -1.7 122.8 41% 59–61 ✗
Texas Tech @ Kansas State +6.9 148.5 78% 58–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Bucknell +6.0 134.8 73% 80–73 ✗
American University @ Colgate +7.1 144.8 80% 61–62 ✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC -2.8 137.5 40% 78–72 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Missouri State +1.2 124.9 56% 61–57 ✗
Boston College @ Notre Dame +4.2 138.4 69% 84–72 ✗
Cornell @ Harvard -1.6 144.2 43% 89–95 ✗
Dartmouth @ Princeton +12.6 137.3 87% 90–93 ✓
Iowa @ Ohio State +3.4 155.2 64% 77–93 ✓
Texas A&M @ Kentucky +3.4 141.0 66% 67–76 ✓
Fordham @ Duquesne +5.7 143.6 75% 65–58 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +8.2 137.8 81% 58–64 ✓
Longwood @ Presbyterian -8.1 131.7 19% 58–56 ✓
High Point @ Radford +10.0 141.0 84% 80–95 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop -1.4 136.6 45% 63–61 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ohio +8.6 140.1 81% 68–96 ✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina -1.1 141.6 46% 81–85 ✗
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota -12.8 146.9 14% 84–72 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota State +2.7 136.3 65% 75–73 ✗
Omaha @ South Dakota +1.1 142.5 57% 68–84 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ William & Mary +1.6 140.5 60% 90–86 ✗
Delaware @ Drexel +4.0 130.4 70% 74–77 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Stetson +10.4 142.5 86% 81–87 ✓
Queens University @ Jacksonville +2.4 139.0 65% 70–77 ✓
Liberty @ North Florida -11.5 141.7 16% 73–62 ✓
DePaul @ Providence +11.3 150.9 87% 64–75 ✓
Nebraska @ Penn State +6.5 136.4 75% 65–76 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Louis +12.2 147.8 87% 71–84 ✓
Akron @ Western Michigan -6.7 142.7 23% 63–55 ✓
Hampton @ Monmouth +0.7 138.2 48% 83–66 ✗
Florida State @ Pittsburgh +11.6 145.3 88% 71–64 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +9.0 144.1 83% 78–62 ✗
Marshall @ Arkansas State -13.1 137.1 14% 87–78 ✓
James Madison @ Southern Miss +2.8 146.1 63% 70–83 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern +2.2 133.0 62% 52–58 ✓
St. Thomas @ Western Illinois +0.9 146.7 55% 56–60 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota State +7.7 144.5 80% 61–76 ✓
Auburn @ South Carolina -13.8 134.7 14% 81–66 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan -0.2 150.2 50% 88–67 ✓
Tennessee @ LSU -13.0 132.2 16% 77–56 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall -0.6 143.9 52% 74–53 ✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma -0.4 145.5 46% 62–60 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State +6.9 143.6 78% 66–70 ✓
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central +13.3 140.8 87% 55–74 ✓
Drake @ Evansville -12.3 138.0 14% 97–61 ✓
Belmont @ Bradley +7.2 140.3 76% 78–76 ✗
Columbia @ Brown +10.7 137.9 87% 85–97 ✓
Florida International @ UTSA -0.3 146.6 48% 77–72 ✓
North Texas @ UAB +4.0 137.0 66% 63–52 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Loyola Chicago -3.7 136.3 35% 55–67 ✗
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro +8.2 130.1 80% 48–59 ✓
Towson @ Elon -9.2 134.0 18% 66–62 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside +2.0 135.1 63% 67–63 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona -4.7 147.3 29% 79–76 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay -3.2 141.1 36% 74–59 ✓
Colorado State @ Wyoming -0.9 147.6 46% 57–58 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -2.7 153.4 38% 96–65 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard -0.1 146.7 49% 56–88 ✗
Nicholls @ McNeese -2.5 142.7 41% 71–68 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin +7.8 142.8 80% 78–91 ✓
Tennessee State @ Little Rock -0.5 147.1 44% 77–89 ✗
Morehead State @ Lindenwood -0.4 138.3 47% 72–63 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State -3.9 150.7 30% 76–70 ✓
East Texas A&M @ SE Louisiana +4.1 145.6 69% 73–79 ✓
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville +6.2 145.1 76% 82–72 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech +1.9 140.5 62% 68–51 ✗
NC State @ North Carolina +3.9 153.9 68% 69–80 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green +4.8 156.0 68% 73–83 ✓
UL Monroe @ Troy +10.0 135.3 85% 53–77 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State -1.0 140.1 47% 60–51 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +5.4 133.2 73% 49–69 ✓
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans -5.7 148.9 26% 88–65 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Sam Houston +15.2 152.5 89% 64–83 ✓
Campbell @ Charleston Southern +2.2 142.7 62% 78–76 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State +11.8 138.8 88% 47–57 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State +3.8 149.1 66% 77–84 ✓
Alabama @ Missouri -6.9 160.6 26% 85–64 ✓
Texas @ West Virginia +1.7 147.7 55% 69–61 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Clemson +3.6 146.0 68% 50–51 ✓
Indiana State @ Murray State -0.8 146.7 48% 73–82 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale +9.2 143.5 81% 63–70 ✓
UNLV @ Fresno State -4.0 132.3 32% 63–76 ✗
San José State @ Utah State +10.6 143.5 86% 74–75 ✓
Southern Utah @ Seattle U +2.8 151.3 65% 60–81 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +8.4 144.6 82% 65–74 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland +2.4 159.1 64% 76–91 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky +0.9 132.8 56% 54–74 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis +9.3 135.6 84% 63–65 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego -2.4 142.8 42% 112–110 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama A&M +1.0 143.9 49% 70–59 ✗
Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -2.5 142.8 38% 55–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.