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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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52–24 on winners spread MAE 9.4 76 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Minnesota -12.8 133.5 14% 61–39 ✓
Charleston @ Monmouth -15.6 144.2 13% 69–55 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +9.2 139.4 82% 78–88 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +7.8 142.9 78% 45–66 ✓
NJIT @ Bryant +9.3 152.0 83% 75–87 ✓
Binghamton @ UAlbany +1.9 144.3 60% 65–54 ✗
Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee +1.5 129.9 56% 58–62 ✓
Michigan @ Maryland +4.6 143.0 68% 58–64 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +11.4 138.7 87% 60–70 ✓
Mercer @ VMI -2.4 141.6 39% 69–61 ✓
James Madison @ Troy +1.4 141.3 58% 89–87 ✗
UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern +6.6 137.1 76% 72–59 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion +4.7 133.5 69% 58–70 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina -2.2 137.5 42% 84–93 ✗
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis -8.1 145.0 21% 83–77 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State +0.9 146.7 56% 88–80 ✗
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky +0.2 131.0 50% 56–57 ✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook +0.4 129.0 53% 79–66 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Hofstra +2.9 137.0 67% 46–70 ✓
William & Mary @ Delaware +4.7 136.7 69% 53–80 ✓
Hampton @ Drexel +14.0 135.8 89% 73–79 ✓
Towson @ North Carolina A&T -2.8 137.2 40% 79–67 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Stetson +3.2 147.9 68% 82–81 ✗
Queens University @ North Florida -2.3 157.6 43% 90–95 ✗
Liberty @ Jacksonville -5.2 123.6 29% 66–52 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida Gulf Coast +10.3 138.3 86% 51–55 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Sam Houston +10.3 140.3 84% 71–76 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA -13.2 146.0 14% 83–64 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +10.2 134.7 84% 72–60 ✗
McNeese @ Nicholls +6.7 143.9 78% 64–73 ✓
East Texas A&M @ LSU New Orleans -1.6 149.9 41% 63–58 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian +1.4 149.6 56% 89–78 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ UT Arlington +1.4 145.0 61% 73–85 ✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss +8.5 136.9 81% 72–76 ✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State -8.7 139.1 21% 80–71 ✓
Marshall @ Texas State -5.4 136.1 32% 81–73 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State -6.4 147.9 23% 92–69 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota -2.4 130.7 39% 60–77 ✗
Omaha @ South Dakota State +8.1 139.8 80% 61–84 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota +1.6 148.4 59% 75–60 ✗
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State +5.1 154.6 72% 80–60 ✗
Youngstown State @ Green Bay -14.9 152.0 13% 86–70 ✓
Robert Morris @ Milwaukee +5.4 140.9 75% 69–77 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Davis +2.5 146.2 65% 74–72 ✗
Idaho @ Northern Arizona +2.2 142.9 62% 88–83 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado -2.8 152.8 38% 83–75 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +1.5 146.5 59% 62–75 ✓
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +0.3 133.3 52% 56–45 ✗
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana +1.1 148.6 57% 91–81 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Lamar -11.8 149.1 15% 66–68 ✗
Indiana @ Illinois +6.0 145.8 75% 80–65 ✗
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville +11.3 141.5 87% 67–58 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock -2.6 146.2 38% 77–75 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Gonzaga +13.0 157.4 87% 68–67 ✗
USC @ Arizona +7.5 152.9 77% 66–81 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +4.0 141.6 68% 74–85 ✓
Washington State @ Utah +2.7 132.0 63% 63–77 ✓
Washington @ Colorado +7.6 141.1 78% 75–72 ✗
Florida International @ UTEP +5.0 134.5 71% 61–81 ✓
New Mexico State @ Southern Utah +6.8 151.0 79% 76–111 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +3.9 161.5 69% 83–88 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State +4.2 140.2 68% 74–78 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood -2.0 145.8 41% 81–65 ✓
Portland State @ Weber State +1.5 141.0 60% 68–84 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho State -0.4 140.0 44% 61–65 ✗
Tarleton State @ Seattle U +5.3 141.3 75% 47–67 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +11.2 130.0 87% 52–72 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal Poly +1.6 127.0 59% 71–64 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine +5.4 136.0 72% 68–76 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State +1.4 147.4 59% 67–72 ✓
UCLA @ Arizona State -3.2 135.5 36% 74–62 ✓
Oregon State @ Stanford +6.4 133.4 73% 46–67 ✓
Pacific @ San Francisco +6.8 152.8 78% 57–78 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Pepperdine -12.0 139.2 15% 73–44 ✓
BYU @ Santa Clara +3.8 145.4 69% 76–83 ✓
Ball State @ Kent State +9.9 141.0 84% 65–86 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.