Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MINN +650 PUR -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +22 | 100 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -14.4 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (-31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -15.3 (-6.7) | 131.3 (-31.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -12.8 (-9.2) | 133.5 (-33.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -12.0 (-10.0) | 133.8 (-33.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -13.0 (-9.0) | 132.1 (-32.1) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | PUR 85 – 57 MINN |
| Jan 3, 2025 | PUR 81 – 61 MINN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MINN |
| Dec 4, 2022 | PUR 89 – 70 MINN |
| Feb 3, 2022 | PUR 88 – 73 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 2-17 | 15-5 |
| Home | 6-11 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 62.7 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#212) | 16.2 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#190) | 4.07 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#218) | 5.93 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#211) | 0.650 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 11.8% |
Game Analysis
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