Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | MINN +475 PUR -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +15 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -9.8 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.5 (-6.5) | 145.4 (+15.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.6 (-8.4) | 147.0 (+14.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.0 (-8.0) | 146.4 (+14.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.6 (-8.4) | 145.1 (+15.9) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | PUR 85 – 57 MINN |
| Jan 3, 2025 | PUR 81 – 61 MINN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MINN |
| Jan 20, 2023 | PUR 61 – 39 MINN |
| Dec 4, 2022 | PUR 89 – 70 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#88) | 19.2 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#60) | 3.27 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#63) | 4.26 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#56) | 0.630 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 58.9% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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