Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -20.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -3500 MINN +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +19 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -29.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.7 (+34.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -21.0 (-2.0) | 133.4 (+25.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -19.7 (-0.7) | 138.5 (+20.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -20.0 (-1.0) | 135.3 (+23.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -22.1 (-3.1) | 138.9 (+20.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | PUR 85 – 57 MINN |
| Jan 3, 2025 | PUR 81 – 61 MINN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MINN |
| Jan 20, 2023 | PUR 61 – 39 MINN |
| Feb 3, 2022 | PUR 88 – 73 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 2-17 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-11 |
| Away | 7-3 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 18.5 (#3) | -4.8 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#4) | -0.09 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.13 (#3) | -1.28 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.718 (#1) | 0.536 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 10.4% |
Game Analysis
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