Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -2500 MINN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -18.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -16.8 (-8.8) | 149.5 (+10.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -17.9 (-9.9) | 148.5 (+11.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -16.4 (-8.4) | 149.0 (+11.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -17.2 (-9.2) | 149.6 (+10.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | PUR 85 – 57 MINN |
| Jan 3, 2025 | PUR 81 – 61 MINN |
| Jan 20, 2023 | PUR 61 – 39 MINN |
| Dec 4, 2022 | PUR 89 – 70 MINN |
| Feb 3, 2022 | PUR 88 – 73 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-0 | 16-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 22.9 (#3) | 7.8 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#1) | 1.06 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.78 (#1) | 1.54 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.700 (#1) | 0.508 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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