Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -3200 MINN +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +28 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -21.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -18.8 (+9.2) | 136.6 (+5.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -15.1 (+12.9) | 136.9 (+5.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -16.6 (+11.4) | 137.0 (+5.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -18.5 (+9.5) | 139.2 (+2.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2025 | PUR 81 – 61 MINN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MINN |
| Jan 20, 2023 | PUR 61 – 39 MINN |
| Dec 4, 2022 | PUR 89 – 70 MINN |
| Feb 3, 2022 | PUR 88 – 73 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#13) | 2.5 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#8) | -0.10 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.47 (#7) | 0.14 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#12) | 0.476 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 41.8% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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