Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MINN +195 PUR -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +20 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -8.7 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -5.7 (-14.3) | 136.3 (+5.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.4 (-13.6) | 136.7 (+5.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -6.5 (-13.5) | 138.2 (+3.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -5.2 (-14.8) | 136.4 (+5.6) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | PUR 85 – 57 MINN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MINN |
| Jan 20, 2023 | PUR 61 – 39 MINN |
| Dec 4, 2022 | PUR 89 – 70 MINN |
| Feb 3, 2022 | PUR 88 – 73 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-9 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#151) | 13.3 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#141) | 2.76 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#132) | 3.76 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#204) | 0.652 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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