Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SUU -250 NMSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +35 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | SUU -6.3 (+28.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -6.2 (+28.8) | 151.1 (+35.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -7.1 (+27.9) | 151.9 (+35.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -6.8 (+28.2) | 151.0 (+36.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -4.7 (+30.3) | 149.6 (+37.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2024 | NMSU 72 – 69 SUU |
| Dec 29, 2022 | SUU 79 – 75 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 13-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#112) | 1.0 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#101) | -0.68 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#105) | -0.48 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#95) | 0.484 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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