Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -225 SUU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +4 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -8.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -6.2 (-10.2) | 156.8 (-2.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -6.0 (-10.0) | 158.3 (-4.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -6.4 (-10.4) | 157.9 (-3.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -6.9 (-10.9) | 153.1 (+0.9) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2024 | NMSU 72 – 69 SUU |
| Jan 20, 2023 | SUU 111 – 76 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#86) | 2.4 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#116) | -0.05 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#96) | -0.11 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#83) | 0.509 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 33.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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