Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ARST +260 UL -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +9 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -7.9 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -8.0 (-1.0) | 137.6 (+13.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -7.0 (-2.0) | 136.9 (+14.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -8.7 (-0.3) | 139.1 (+11.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -8.2 (-0.8) | 139.9 (+11.1) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 14-0 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#313) | 3.1 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#299) | 1.18 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#306) | 1.61 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#332) | 0.576 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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