Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -900 CIT +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -15.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -11.6 (-1.6) | 140.8 (-10.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -10.9 (-0.9) | 140.8 (-10.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -11.4 (-1.4) | 138.7 (-8.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -12.0 (-2.0) | 138.4 (-8.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CIT 71 – 66 UNCG |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNCG 69 – 66 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 57 CIT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#129) | -9.5 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#150) | -1.18 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#139) | -1.63 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#119) | 0.444 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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