Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | CIT +600 UNCG -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +15 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -14.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -14.7 (-0.3) | 132.8 (+4.2) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -13.9 (-1.1) | 132.1 (+4.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -13.8 (-1.2) | 131.5 (+5.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -14.2 (-0.8) | 133.4 (+3.6) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CIT 71 – 66 UNCG |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNCG 69 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 57 CIT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UNCG 73 – 67 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-12 | 11-3 |
| Away | 0-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L24 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -16.2 (#358) | 1.4 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.96 (#361) | 0.16 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.29 (#360) | 0.14 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.352 (#361) | 0.515 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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