Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | CIT +120 UNCG -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -0.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -0.0 (+5.0) | 145.4 (-8.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.3 (+6.3) | 146.8 (-9.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.3 (+5.3) | 146.0 (-9.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -0.0 (+5.0) | 146.1 (-9.1) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNCG 69 – 66 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 57 CIT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UNCG 73 – 67 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -14.0 (#347) | -10.6 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#343) | -1.55 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#345) | -1.99 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#346) | 0.429 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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