Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -470 CIT +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -10.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -9.9 (-6.9) | 147.2 (-12.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -10.5 (-7.5) | 147.8 (-12.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -9.0 (-6.0) | 146.3 (-11.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -9.2 (-6.2) | 148.4 (-13.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CIT 71 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 57 CIT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UNCG 73 – 67 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#305) | -16.7 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#303) | -3.35 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#295) | -4.62 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#304) | 0.356 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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