Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +260 TOW -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +12 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -2.7 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -5.2 (-6.8) | 133.4 (+12.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -2.8 (-9.2) | 137.2 (+8.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -2.7 (-9.3) | 137.9 (+8.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -3.3 (-8.7) | 136.1 (+9.9) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | NCAT 80 – 73 TOW |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOW 83 – 67 NCAT |
| Mar 1, 2024 | TOW 84 – 58 NCAT |
| Feb 18, 2023 | TOW 87 – 75 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#270) | 0.6 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#256) | 0.41 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#256) | 0.50 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#237) | 0.511 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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