Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +700 TOW -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +26 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -10.4 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -10.9 (-15.1) | 131.7 (+10.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -10.8 (-15.2) | 130.4 (+11.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -10.3 (-15.7) | 132.1 (+9.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -10.9 (-15.1) | 130.8 (+11.2) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | NCAT 80 – 73 TOW |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOW 83 – 67 NCAT |
| Feb 18, 2023 | TOW 87 – 75 NCAT |
| Jan 20, 2023 | TOW 79 – 67 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 4-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-14 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-6 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#340) | 0.7 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#322) | 0.14 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#325) | 0.10 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#301) | 0.508 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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