Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +270 TOW -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -3.9 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -5.3 (+12.3) | 134.9 (+18.1) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -3.6 (+10.6) | 133.2 (+19.8) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -3.2 (+10.2) | 133.2 (+19.8) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -4.2 (+11.2) | 132.3 (+20.7) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOW 83 – 67 NCAT |
| Mar 1, 2024 | TOW 84 – 58 NCAT |
| Feb 18, 2023 | TOW 87 – 75 NCAT |
| Jan 20, 2023 | TOW 79 – 67 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#273) | -0.0 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#274) | 0.23 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#298) | 0.18 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#281) | 0.534 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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