Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -1000 NCAT +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -11.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -11.6 (+4.4) | 140.7 (+9.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -9.5 (+6.5) | 141.6 (+8.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -9.8 (+6.2) | 141.8 (+8.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -10.0 (+6.0) | 141.7 (+8.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | NCAT 80 – 73 TOW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | TOW 84 – 58 NCAT |
| Feb 18, 2023 | TOW 87 – 75 NCAT |
| Jan 20, 2023 | TOW 79 – 67 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-1 | 5-9 |
| Away | 9-5 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#205) | -9.9 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#157) | -2.81 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#169) | -3.24 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#117) | 0.375 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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