Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -700 NCAT +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +12 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -12.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -13.8 (-1.8) | 144.4 (+17.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -11.0 (+1.0) | 145.7 (+16.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -11.1 (+0.9) | 145.2 (+16.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -11.5 (+0.5) | 147.0 (+15.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | NCAT 80 – 73 TOW |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOW 83 – 67 NCAT |
| Mar 1, 2024 | TOW 84 – 58 NCAT |
| Jan 20, 2023 | TOW 79 – 67 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#147) | -8.2 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#149) | -0.93 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#147) | -1.37 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#164) | 0.470 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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