Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | SHSU -250 SFA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SHSU -12.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -9.9 (-4.9) | 137.5 (+9.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -8.9 (-3.9) | 137.6 (+9.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -10.3 (-5.3) | 140.3 (+6.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -10.3 (-5.3) | 140.6 (+6.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2023 | SHSU 64 – 59 SFA |
| Feb 25, 2022 | SFA 69 – 67 SHSU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | SHSU 49 – 41 SFA |
| Mar 6, 2021 | SFA 64 – 59 SHSU |
| Jan 31, 2021 | SFA 78 – 68 SHSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 10-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#44) | 1.6 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#62) | 0.46 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#70) | 0.42 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#58) | 0.509 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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