Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SHSU +110 SFA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | SHSU -1.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -3.5 (-8.5) | 151.5 (-28.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -2.3 (-7.3) | 146.7 (-23.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -3.4 (-8.4) | 151.0 (-28.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -3.1 (-8.1) | 152.6 (-29.6) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2023 | SHSU 64 – 59 SFA |
| Jan 20, 2023 | SHSU 76 – 71 SFA |
| Feb 25, 2022 | SFA 69 – 67 SHSU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | SHSU 49 – 41 SFA |
| Jan 31, 2021 | SFA 78 – 68 SHSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-9 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 12-3 |
| Home | 12-1 | 10-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#165) | 0.8 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#114) | -0.44 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#135) | -0.70 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#47) | 0.508 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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