Betting Lines
| Spread | SAC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | IDST +130 SAC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -0.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.1 (+3.9) | 139.1 (-13.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -0.5 (+3.5) | 138.5 (-12.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -0.4 (+4.4) | 140.0 (-14.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAC -0.4 (+4.4) | 141.9 (-15.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SAC 83 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | IDST 97 – 84 SAC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IDST 83 – 66 SAC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAC 75 – 71 IDST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | IDST 68 – 40 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 69.2 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#247) | -1.1 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#307) | 0.30 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#266) | 0.18 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#333) | 0.521 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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