Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -120 BELL +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +11 | 101 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -2.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (-25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -0.2 (-11.2) | 130.7 (-29.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BELL -0.5 (-10.5) | 128.4 (-27.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -0.3 (-11.3) | 133.3 (-32.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -0.1 (-11.1) | 134.4 (-33.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BELL 111 – 97 APSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | APSU 90 – 70 BELL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | BELL 94 – 68 APSU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | APSU 86 – 77 BELL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | APSU 90 – 87 BELL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#285) | -5.2 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#289) | -0.84 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#299) | -0.93 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#266) | 0.472 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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