Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CCU +130 APP -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +9 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | APP -2.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+42.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.2 (+11.2) | 138.9 (+38.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.5 (+10.5) | 139.2 (+37.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.2 (+11.2) | 137.5 (+39.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.2 (+11.2) | 138.6 (+38.4) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CCU 67 – 62 APP |
| Dec 18, 2025 | APP 67 – 49 CCU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | APP 64 – 46 CCU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | APP 74 – 51 CCU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | APP 88 – 59 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#290) | -0.9 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#197) | -0.33 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#248) | -0.19 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#162) | 0.492 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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