Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +220 MER -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -2.2 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -3.1 (-4.9) | 139.3 (-9.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -2.0 (-6.0) | 136.6 (-6.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.4 (-5.6) | 141.6 (-11.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -3.0 (-5.0) | 140.7 (-10.7) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MER 95 – 81 VMI |
| Jan 15, 2026 | MER 77 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 15, 2025 | VMI 80 – 71 MER |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MER 70 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MER 90 – 69 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 1-14 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#335) | -4.3 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#345) | -0.98 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.92 (#348) | -1.13 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#342) | 0.443 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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