Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +195 MER -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | VMI -0.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -0.3 (-2.7) | 153.8 (-16.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -0.3 (-3.3) | 151.3 (-14.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -0.1 (-2.9) | 151.7 (-14.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -0.7 (-3.7) | 153.5 (-16.5) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MER 95 – 81 VMI |
| Jan 15, 2026 | MER 77 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 15, 2025 | VMI 80 – 71 MER |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MER 90 – 69 VMI |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MER 86 – 64 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#308) | -4.5 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#324) | -0.35 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#300) | -0.78 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#326) | 0.473 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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